Sunday, September 17, 2006

Does Notre Dame Stand a Chance?

Common logic suggests that Michigan State is doomed next week when Notre Dame comes to East Lansing. Not only does Notre Dame have bigger and arguably better players, but after such a steamrolling, they are definitely hungrier. Still my recent recollection suggests that Michigan State has been going to town on Notre Dame lately. Here are some stats on games between 1995-2005 (note: Notre Dame didn't play Michigan or Michigan State in 1995 or 1996)

positive signs
  • Notre Dame is 2-7 against Michigan State
  • Notre Dame's victories over Michigan State have only ever occurred when they beat Michigan the preceding weekend

negative signs

  • Notre Dame is 2-2 in East Lansing
I am not sure what to make of this. Looking at the Michigan - Notre Dame trends would have show Notre Dame dominating the recent series especially at home. But use of historic data proved to be wrong in today's game. I am only hoping that similar causality holds. Since Notre Dame lost to Michigan today they *should* also lose to Michigan State.

Notre Dame Results/Scores from 1995-2005:
2005: @ Michigan W, 17-10
Michigan State L, 44-41

2004: Michigan W, 28-20
@ Michigan State W, 31-24

2003: @ Michigan L, 38-0 (I was at that game. Madness!)
Michigan State L, 22-16

2002: Michigan W, 25-23
@ Michigan State W, 21-17

2001: Michigan State L, 17-10

2000: @ Michigan State L, 27-21

1999: @ Michigan L, 26-22
Michigan State L, 23-13

1998: Michigan W, 36-20
@ Michigan State L, 45-23

1997: Michigan State L, 23-7
@ Michigan L, 21-14

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